Kampala Geopolitics Conference 2019

On a daily basis, human activities impacting climate and environment, often in an irreversible way. With augmenting frequency and intensity of extreme weather, the drastic effects of climate change are already perceptible. SDG 13, therefore, calls on nations to “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.” Climate change will be as much an economic problem as an environmental one. Extreme weather events not only become more frequent but also costlier. According to recent estimates, natural disasters caused about $155 billion in damage across the world in 2018. Moreover, the effects of a changing climate are expected to damage property and critical infrastructure, impact human health and productivity, and negatively affect the agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and tourism sectors. With these economic factors in mind, how is the private sector responding to the challenge of climate change? What are the economic costs of failing to tackle the challenge effectively? What is the role of companies in the fight against climate change? How can they be held responsible? To what extent can private sector stakeholders be allies in the fight against climate change?

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The International Criminal Court (ICC) has, since 2002, claimed jurisdiction over all cultures and peoples – a sophisticated goal that it justifies by prosecuting only those crimes that violate the universal consensus of justice that concern the international community. Yet this impression is rarely shared on the African continent: African nations have accused the ICC of being a tool of Western imperialism and thus of targeting weaker African states. 10 out of 11 situations of opened investigations are located on the African continent. Even if the ICC recently launched preliminary investigations into non-African countries, the court’s attempt to prosecute heads of states such as Uhuru Kenyatta and Umar Al-Bashir only added fuel to the fire. African nations have consequently threatened to withdraw from the RSICC - Burundi and South Africa leading this trend. Is the ICC’s jurisdiction factually restricted to Africa? Is the court hesitant to charge criminals from more influential countries? Or is, in fact, Africa the trouble-making spot on this planet?

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One in 200 people is a slave. Worldwide, slavery concerns more than 40 million people today. This is more than thrice the number of persons thought to be enslaved during the transatlantic slave trade. How can such an increase be explained despite our global achievements towards a universal understanding of human rights? Since its abolition, slavery has been illegal but become more lucrative nonetheless, generating $150 billion annually. The level of exploitation ranges from slave-like working conditions – often affecting children and migrant workers – to the complete loss of freedom and self-determination in a context of de-facto imprisonment and forced labour. Human trafficking plays a key role in this context. It is impossible to turn a blind eye to modern slavery – it is everywhere and all around us: from the horrible stories coming out of North Korea to the enslaved sex-workers trafficked to European countries, from the slave markets in Syria to the slavery-like conditions for African domestic workers in Arab countries – the phenomenon comes in many forms and hides behind many different facades. But what explains our failure to end slavery once and for all? Why does it appear to reach increasingly dramatic dimensions? What are we doing, what are we failing to do, and what should we be doing in order to address this ongoing attack on humanity?

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With the introduction of the post-2015 goals and targets, traditional aid models of North-to- South transactions were coined outdated. Bilateral and multilateral donors have for several decades provided massive volumes of assistance to support developing countries. This has contributed to the reduction of poverty, improvement of social infrastructure and in some countries to a successful transformation of the entire economy. But critical voices highlight shortcomings in aid effectiveness and point out that in spite of large volumes of aid the results remain far behind expectations and key problems in the developing world remain unsolved. Moreover, the modalities of aid have been questioned, especially the conditionalities attached by Western donors. There have been continuous efforts to reform development assistance over the last two decades - towards more coordination, coherence and local ownership. At the same time, new models are coming up, such as modern ideas of global philanthropy and more private sector- focussed approaches. And new powerful players have entered the arena: countries like China, India and Brazil have started shaking up the donor landscape. What does all this mean for the future of aid? Is development aid a solution or part of the problem? What needs to happen in order for aid to be more effective? And what is the motivation of the donors? Is development aid a tool of geopolitical power play?

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In recent decades, the Red Sea dividing Africa and the Middle East seems to have shrunk: Gulf states with deep pockets and big appetites are now asserting themselves in the Horn of Africa. While such transitions offer opportunities for development and integration, they also open up risks, especially for the fragile African states on the western shores of the Red Sea. With Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing their cards, the Horn of Africa increasingly resembles the colonial power game in which the African states approach their opponents from a position of relative weakness. As Middle East countries seek to expand their influence in the Horn of Africa, they are exporting rivalries to a region that has plenty of its own. In any case, the Red Sea is an emerging arena for competition. At its center is the Bab el Mandeb strait, a narrow shipping corridor through which hundreds of billions of dollars in oil and other exports pass between Europe, Asia, and the Gulf. Will the Red Sea Arena exert influence that reshuffles African priorities?

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Global challenges require global solutions. And in an increasingly globalised and interdependent world, global governance mechanisms continue to gain importance. But as the world gets more connected and the problems become increasingly complex, people feel more and more alienated by what they often perceive to be disconnected corridors of power at the global level. While it is easier to follow political decision-making and hold powers accountable at local and national level, the global structures and processes are often less understood. Who is driving political agendas, policies and decision-making at the global level? What is the actual influence of global players without a clear democratic mandate? What is the role of multinational corporations, especially when some of them have a stronger economic muscle than entire national economies of smaller countries? What is happening behind the scenes of global fora? Who beyond governments are the powerful global players of the 21st century? Apart from the corporate world, what is the role of (global) social movements and international NGOs? Does the increased digital connectedness of “global citizens” and the rise of social media open up new avenues for citizens to influence global agendas?

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In spite of a decline of wars between countries, civil conflicts have been increasing in the recent past. Violent conflict still affects many regions in the world. In most of these conflicts, women are disproportionately affected by the consequences. These do not just include the direct consequences like the loss of life and property or conflict-related sexual violence, but also the more indirect and long-term consequences. UN Women states that conflict significantly increases malnutrition rates for women and more than doubles the risk of girls not going to school compared non-conflict settings. Additionally, 60% of preventable maternal deaths occur in situations of conflict. But women are not just victims of conflict, they may also act as perpetrators as well as peace-makers. So how exactly does conflict impact on women and girls? What are women’s active and passive roles in conflict? How does the changing nature of conflict and the increasingly asymmetric nature of warfare affect these roles? What can be done to protect women in conflict? How can a stronger voice and contribution of women in peace-building be achieved?

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When the African Union was established, the dream of a particularly African identity was the main push-factor behind the formation of the continental body. At the time, African leaders raised hopes for one united Africa without trade or political barriers. Africa registered commendable progress under the AU, particularly with respect to peace and security. Yet, incidents like the xenophobic violence in South Africa have overshadowed the plans for a united, integrated African continent. Addis Ababa can do little about this. Even more troublesome are instances of continental insecurity like instabilities in the Horn of Africa or the ongoing civil war in DR Congo. Some countries have contributed significantly to return to continental peace and security, others have merely been bystanders, thus threatening progress to unity. The need to draw a realistic picture on the question of African unity remains much more urgent today than when the idea first sparked flames. Is African unity a realistic concept for a continent so diverse and multicultural as can be? What are the key drivers and obstacles towards unity and closer integration? And how does the young generation define African unity?

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A world without hunger - this is the ambitious vision captured in SDG2, which aims to “end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture by 2030”. But what does data tell us on the possibility to end world hunger in the next 11 years? And if so, where to start to accomplish the colossal task of ending hunger around the globe? Multiple factors, including conflict, economic shocks and stagnation, a lack of cohesion at the policy level, suboptimal food systems and underdeveloped supply chains are at play and contribute to the deterioration of global food security. The challenges in achieving SDG 2 are clearly formidable. So how far have we come in the global fight against hunger? Will technology and innovation in agriculture and food production make us achieve the goal? Or do we need to also address more fundamental political issues? What is the role of economic and trade policies, especially in the Western world? What are the key obstacles and what efforts are necessary to make the utopia of zero hunger a reality?

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Energy has been recognized as a central aspect to sustainable development. This goes to the extent that Africa’s economic growth could by boosted by 30% in the next 20 years if the energy gap were to be closed. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has the lowest energy access rates in the world: More than 600 million people in Africa lack access to clean, affordable, and reliable energy. Critical issues in Africa’s energy sector are manifold: low access, poor reliability, and high costs of power tariffs. Higher levels of energy services are critical to improve human, economic, social, and environmental conditions of the people today and for future generations. Broadly speaking, Africa’s energy poverty makes the continent poor. But how can we address Africa’s electricity challenges and power the continent’s economic transformation?

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What makes a revolution successful? More importantly maybe: What would make it desirable? History shows that sometimes what seems to be desirable at a certain point in time - and is therefore welcomed as it happens – may soon appear in a different light. When resistance and civil disobedience lead to a defeat of the old order – or at least appear to do so – the euphoria knows few limits. But once the “honeymoon” is over this euphoria may easily turn into a sense of disappointment or disillusionment. Recently, we have seen numerous examples of more or less successful popular uprisings. Zimbabwe, for instance, is Africa’s latest example. Likewise, the Arab spring, the Ukraine’s Orange Revolution and the current situation in Venezuela have lifted up the hopes of many to witness change and democratic transition. What now of all these auspicious-looking revolutions that punish governments for their broken promises? In the past 50 years, only about a third of revolutions have turned dictatorships into democracies. Many revolutions remain unfinished, others backfire into a revival of the old order. And some even fuel the worst fears by leading into chaos, anarchy and protracted periods of conflict. So what makes a revolution successful? And what is desirable about it after all? Revolution or gradual reforms: what works for a successful transformation?

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More than half of all people live in cities. By 2050, two-thirds of humanity – 6.5 billion people – will live in urban spaces. Sustainable development cannot be achieved without significantly transforming the way we build and manage our urban spaces. SDG 11 of the Agenda 2030 therefore talks about making cities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. Only a decade ago, the promise of optimising urban spheres through the extensive use of ICT was still a technoutopian fantasy. Since then, the terms smart city and smart urbanism have become major branding tools for global cities - without actually being clearly defined. The core idea is simple: smart cities are based on the idea that technology stands as the primary driver for change which will introduce innovative solutions to challenges of urban growth. So how exactly will smart cities transform our daily lives? How will urban places look like in the future? What are the challenges for cities to transition into the age of smart urbanism? And how about the aspect of inclusiveness? Will smart cities foster a better life for all inhabitants?

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Poverty and Africa: Those are terms that seem to correlate in the minds of many. But Africa holds 30% of the world’s known mineral reserves. With oil, gold, diamonds and rare minerals, Africa is blessed with abundant resources. So what has left the continent stripped of the benefits of its unique selling points? Some point to the West: many multinational companies can be traced back to colonial roots, thus being accused of continuing an exploitative history. Some of these also engage is trade mispricing or transfer pricing. Others point to the continent itself: offshore banking has opened up new avenues for secretive deals, corruption and illicit financial flows. But it is not just the unethical practices that strip Africa of its wealth. Governments, as well, have contributed their share by introducing loose and overly generous tax incentives that benefit foreign importers but not the local exporters. Moreover, wealth is often concentrated in the hands of a small elite benefiting from exploitation and corruption. In such an imbroglio of interests and stakeholders, who can point out the biggest thieves with certainty? What is undermining the translation of Africa’s wealth into inclusive economic development and prosperity for all?

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Do we still have global superpowers? Or have we already entered an era of multipolarity? While observers may not agree on an answer, it is obvious that we are witnessing significant changes in the global arena of political and economic power play. Following the obvious decline of the so-called Pax Americana, are we now looking at an increasingly rudderless international system? Will we still see one – or a few – global hegemons in the future? What will be the long-term impact of the Trump presidency on the US role in world politics? What role is China going to play? How relevant and strong can a united (or divided) European Union be? What are the implications of the global geopolitical transformation for multilateral cooperation? As uncertainty grows, will we see new multilateral forms emerge? How will we deal with competing interests in a multipolar world without an escalation of conflicts?

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The adoption of the Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development in 2015 marked the entry into a new promising era of international cooperation. It is also yet another milestone in the impressive history of the United Nations (UN). Since its establishment in 1945, the UN and its various agencies have been committed to engender global peace, stability and security, respect for human rights as well as multilateral cooperation. To date, there is little doubt that the UN have achieved many remarkable accomplishments in progressing towards these goals. However, the UN system is also facing growing scepticism. Critical voices point out its overburdening bureaucracy and inefficiency, questionable funding priorities and decision-making processes. Current trends in world politics also seem to undermine the idea of multilateral cooperation and the lack of commitment by member states is leading to a funding crisis for the UN agencies. With the current shifts in global politics, is the UN system at crossroads? How do we take stock of the achievements so far? What are the factors that may hinder the UN from reaching their full potential? Is the UN system still the best avenue to achieve peace and development globally? What reforms may be necessary to improve the system?

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For long, Uganda has been seen as a haven of stability for the Great Lakes Region. But recently, tensions with its neighbour Rwanda escalated, leading to a border shutdown and thus threatening to escalate the situation in the region. Also the situation in neighbouring countries has turned dim. An ongoing civil war drives away thousands from South Sudan. Similar pictures present themselves in DR Congo: The country has been war-torn for decades and, accompanied by outbreaks of the Ebola virus, presents a major threat for the region. Further South, President Pierre Nkurunziza and his government’s brutal violations of human rights as well as years of economic mismanagement force Burundians to flee their homes. Many of these conflicts have deep-rooted lines that relate to ethnicity, access to resources, and weak governance but also post-colonial scars concerning nation-building play a role. Overall, the conflicts are dynamic and complex, involving numerous actors and circulating around shifting epicentres. Can these conflicts be contained or are spill-over effects to destabilise the entire region? What are the prospects for peace, stability and effective cooperation in the Great Lakes Region?

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After World War II, our planet has undergone a demographic revolution. From 2.6 billion in 1950, we have become 7.7 billion. Where is this trend heading? As a result of high fertility rates in Sub-saharan Africa, the continent is expected to double its population by 2050. While this brings an abundant labour force, severe challenges of employment and public services are yet to be tackled. Other regions, particularly Europe, are facing the scenario of shrinking populations. The sore spot in this equation will be the reduction of Europe’s working age population, which will reflect in the economy and put existing welfare states to a test. So what do we make of these contrasting demographic developments? What is the expected economic impact? Do the welfare systems in Europe need to be fundamentally transformed? Or could migration be part of the solution? Can African countries achieve their development goals without addressing the fast population growth? Is it at all possible to achieve a demographic dividend?

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The digital world is a new chapter in human development. Enabled by extraordinary technological advances, digitalisation has fundamentally transformed the way we live, work and communicate. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics are not merely assisting human beings in their working lives but learning to become just like them, thus threatening to replace human work with higher efficiency. This may conjure extreme cases of total replacement: in modern warfare robots and drones may replace humans on the front lines. Such ‘responsibility’ for machines also raises questions of ethics and liability. To what extent are humans still in control over their mechanic counterparts? Who carries the mandate to design and programme machines as well as to feed them with data? And once systems are operational, what ethical principles and legal regulations are they bound to follow? Who is responsible for the actions of machines and the decisions of algorithms? How prepared are we to deal with the implications of the 4th Industrial Revolution for human thought, labour and interaction?

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